Innovation Winter 2025/26

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(the amount of mass displaced), material type (soil, rock, or snow/ice) and date of occurrence, among other relevant data points. This means the more details can be inventoried from past events, the more useful a map becomes for future predictions. While inventory maps record historical data, three other map types used in landslide modelling build on that data to assess the risks of future falls at different locations. These are: susceptibility, hazard, and risk maps. Susceptibility maps identify areas that are more or less likely to experience a landslide based on slope, geology, and land use. Hazard maps identify areas where landslides are likely to occur based on environmental conditions and historical events. Risk maps combine susceptibility with potential impacts – such as damage to infrastructure or loss of life – to assess the overall threat level in specific areas. These maps are produced on specialized software called Geographic Information Systems (GIS), such as ArcGIS Pro (a widely used tool), QGIS (a free, open-source tool), or other region-specific platforms. “Susceptibility, hazard, and risk maps are closely

tied to each other,” Amini said. Because these maps are predictive in nature, “they cannot be 100 percent accurate,” he added, “but still, we can say that data and these maps are accurate enough to predict the future within an acceptable margin of error.” Building better models Collecting the data to feed into these mapping models typically involved engineers and geoscientists physically surveying rockslide sites. Remote sensors have made those data collection tasks scalable. Tools like extensometers (to help detect movement within rock masses or slope via the displacement or deformation between two fixed points), inclinometers (to track changes in the angle or tilt of the ground or structures), and piezometers (to monitor pore water pressure within soil or rock, providing critical data on groundwater conditions that influence slope stability and rockslide risk), enable more extensive data collection and real-time monitoring and warning. When coupled with digital twin platforms, these systems can “send the data in real-time to a software that will order, review, and send out a signal to an alarm system if it passes a certain threshold,” Amini explained. “For example, there currently is a potential for a rockslide on the Sea-to-Sky highway. The Ministry [of Transportation and Transit] has installed two extensometers 20 metres deep into this [site]. They measure the movement across six points and transfer data to a software. We review the data and then if ” Susceptibility, hazard, and risk maps are closely tied to each other. They cannot be 100 percent accurate. But still, we can say that data and these maps are accurate enough to predict the future within an acceptable margin of error. Mehdi Amini, P.Eng. Senior rock mechanics engineer Thurber Engineering

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Winter 2025/26

Innovation